Many converts were are led toward Catholicism by considering Pascal’s wager. “If the reward is great enough, it’s smart to take a risk. The greatest of all possible rewards is eternal joy. If I live as an obedient Catholic, there is a chance that I will gain the greatest reward. The cost of making the bet is not high and makes me a better person. The safe bet is to be a Catholic.” Hard to argue with that. Being Catholic is the smart bet.
Pascal came to this conclusion after he invented probability theory to help a friend do better at gambling. “If you flip a coin a hundred times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that it will come up tails on the next toss?”
Instinctively, most of us would say that the odds were better that it would come up tails, and bet accordingly. “No”, said Pascal. “We have to look at the coin flip as part of an infinite series. Therefore, the odds that the next toss will come up tails is exactly 50-50.”
There’s a problem with that. There is no such thing as an infinite series of coin flips. No one can flip a coin forever, so every series must come to an end. If it comes to an end after a billion flips, the odds of tails occurring on the 101st flip would be close to fifty-fifty. If the series came to an end after one hundred and ten flips, the smart bet would be on tails.
This analysis of probability theory makes the argument for Catholicism far more valid and very, very urgent. Even the heartiest unbeliever knows that his own life is not an infinite series. So, the shorter the time left for his series is what must be analyzed for the bet.
The biggest gamblers gamble that they’ll have time for a deathbed conversion. After all, it only takes a minute to repent, and if there’s a priest handy, the entire power of the Sacrament of Reconciliation kicks in, along with the power granted to the Catholic priest to provide The Last Rites. Gambling on that much mental clarity in the last few minutes is a foolish bet.
Understanding that every lost soul lives in a dwindling series gives Catholic Fundamentalists a special duty. We must not hesitate to remind people that the length of their series, while unknown, is always shrinking. At the very same time, the risk of a sudden death without time for reconciliation with God is increasing.
The smartest time to bet our soul on being Catholic is the first time we realize that our finite series is coming to an end more quickly every day. Being Catholic is the smart bet.
