Many converts were are led toward Catholicism by considering Pascal’s wager. “If the reward is great enough, it’s smart to take a gamble. The greatest of all possible rewards is eternal joy. If I live as an obedient Catholic, there is a chance that I will gain the greatest reward. The cost of making the bet is not high, and in fact, makes me a better person. The safe bet is to be a Catholic.” Hard to argue with that.
Pascal came to this conclusion after he invented probability theory to help a friend do better at gambling. “If you flip a coin a hundred times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that it will come up tails on the next toss?”
Instinctively, most of us say that the odds were better that it would come up tails, and bet accordingly. “No”, said Pascal. “We have to look at the coin flip as part of an infinite series. Therefore, the odds that the next toss will come up tails is exactly 50-50.”
There’s a problem with that. There is no such thing as an infinite series of coin flips. Only God could have a coin flipped forever, and He has more important things to do. So, every series must come to an end.
Probability theory makes the argument for Catholicism very, very urgent. Even the heartiest unbeliever knows that his own life is not an infinite series. So, the shorter the time left for his series is what must be analyzed for the bet.
The biggest gamblers take the risk that they’ll have time for a deathbed conversion. After all, it only takes few minutes to confess and repent. If there’s a priest handy, (that’s the biggest “if” in the world) the entire power of the Sacrament of Reconciliation kicks in with The Last Rites. Gambling on that much mental clarity in the last few minutes is a foolish bet.
Understanding that every lost soul lives in a dwindling series gives Catholic Fundamentalism a special duty. We must not hesitate to remind people that the length of their series is unknown, but that the time they have left is always diminishing. At the very same time, the risk of a sudden death without time for reconciliation with God is increasing.
The smartest time for anyone to bet their soul on Catholicism is when they understand that their finite series is coming to an end more quickly every day. The blunt question must be asked: “Is it stupid not to do so?” Another question may spring into some minds: “Is this how the Garden is self-weeding?”
If that question makes sense, it is seen that the answer may be “Yes.” If that is not followed by the necessary and appropriate action, what is there but the burn pile described in John, 15: 6 “Anyone who does not remain in me is thrown away like a useless branch and withers. Such branches are gathered into a pile to be burned.”
