I bought some silver when it dropped to $32.00/ounce, Now, it’s $29.00/oz. After paying a tuition cost of 10%, I learned that forecasting silver futures was not something at which I was particularly adept.
When we make such mistakes, we see that our minds are programmed to first criticize ourselves (reality) and then to justify the mistake (hiding from reality). “Well, silver might not be a good investment in the short term, but it’ll work out in the long run.”
Since that statement is utterly uncontradictable, it is comforting. But, those who bought silver at that price are still out 10%.
So, the rationalization continues. “I didn’t do too badly. I could have bought it at $40.00 or $50.00 an ounce. A lot of people did. Compared to them, I did really well.”
While it is better to lose 10% than 30% or 40% of an investment, it’s still a loss. So, justifications continue. “I’ve learned to be more careful from this experience. Next time, I’ll know better, so I learned a valuable lesson.”, we tell ourselves and anyone who cares enough to listen. Again, we try to turn a loss into a profit by attributing value to the lesson.
Optimism is a basic part of the human program. It’s surprising how many conversations include optimistic justifications of things that didn’t come to the expected and desired conclusion.
